The pattern: Overall unemployment looks fine at 4.4%. Youth unemployment tells a different story: 16-19 year-olds at ~18%, 20-24 at ~8%, while 55+ workers sit at 3%. The gap widened dramatically since 2022.
What's breaking: "Low-fire, low-hire" creates talent lockout. Companies aren't laying off (keeping older workers), but aren't hiring (blocking younger ones). Monthly job gains: 49K—lowest non-recession pace in 20+ years.
Why it matters for you:
- Pipeline math: No junior hires in 2026 = no mid-level talent in 2029. Can't manufacture experience on demand.
- Retention bomb: Workers who stayed put due to fear will bolt when hiring reopens. If you stopped building your bench, you'll face departures with no replacements.
- Contrarian opportunity: Young talent is available, hungry, and underpriced while competitors freeze. This is when you build 2028 advantage.
Source: WSJ, "America's Job Market Has Entered the Slow Lane" (Jan 10, 2026)
Watch this: If youth unemployment breaks 20%, you're looking at lost-generation effects. Companies using "AI uncertainty" as hiring cover will find they have no one to implement AI tools when they're ready.
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