Nominal Pay: +3.4%. Real Pay: −0.8%.
Nominal wages look healthy. Real purchasing power just turned negative for the second month in a row though.
2 min read
The Signal
The Signal delivers the most important workforce charts, trends, hiring patterns, and talent insights. We read the research so you don't have to—just the signal, no noise. Twice a week.
Page 1 of 4
U.S. Hiring Intentions Rose 7 Points as the Rest of the World Retreated
Employer confidence strengthened to a cycle high in the U.S. even as hiring outlooks weakened in 33 of 42 countries. The divergence matters more than the headline number.
2 min read
Two Sectors Generated 73% of May's Job Gains
Leisure, hospitality, and local government added 125,000 of May's 172,000 jobs. The sectors most managers compete in added almost nothing.
3 min read
Low Fire, Low Hire
U.S. employers announced fewer layoffs in April than a year ago. They also announced far fewer hires. The second number matters more.
2 min read
Manager Engagement Collapsed 9 Points in Three Years
The layer of your organization that drives 70% of team engagement variance is now barely more engaged than the people it manages.
2 min read
Job-Changer Pay Premium Hit a 6-Year Low
The gap between switcher and stayer pay shrank to 1.9 percentage points at the start of the year — the smallest since 2020. But new-hire pay just thawed for the first time in 18 months.
2 min read
Information Sector Employment Has Fallen 342,000 Since 2022
Tech, telecom, and media employment is down 11.0% from its peak — and it kept dropping in April. The talent pool you're hiring from is bigger than your salary bands assume.
3 min read
The Employment Trends Index Rose on Seven of Eight Components
The headline says the labor market is stabilizing. The one hard employer signal inside the index says the opposite.
3 min read
New Entrants Drove 85% of the Unemployment Rise
The headline unemployment rate barely moved. Almost all the damage was absorbed by workers trying to enter the labor force for the first time.
2 min read
Employment Outside Healthcare Fell by 367,000
Healthcare added 618,000 jobs over the past 12 months. Every other sector combined lost ground.
2 min read
Unemployment Rose in 14 Places Last Year. It Fell in 2.
The national 4.4% rate looks stable. Underneath, state-level deterioration is outpacing improvement seven to one.
2 min read
AI Drove 25% of March Layoffs
Employers cited AI for one in four announced cuts last month, up from one in twenty for all of 2025. The narrative shift is happening in real time.
2 min read