One Number

Single figures from the labor data, taken apart.

57 pieces

Productivity Grew 2.2% in 2025

The economy got more efficient last year. The gains didn't distribute evenly, and manufacturing is running in the opposite direction entirely.

Union Workers Earn 20% More

Private-sector unionization is at historic lows. The wage premium it commands is not.

Real Wages Rose 1.2%

Nominal pay looks healthy at 3.7%. Strip out inflation and add back the extra hours, and workers are running faster to stay in place.

Federal Employment Fell 10.9%

The government shed 327,000 positions since October 2024. That workforce doesn't disappear, it floods into private labor markets, and your hiring strategy probably hasn't adjusted for it.

Inflation Cooled to 2.4%

Overall prices are moving closer to the Fed's target, but shelter costs, which directly affect compensation decisions, remain elevated at 3.0% annually.

Job Openings Fell to 6.5 Million

The market lost 386,000 openings in one month and 966,000 over the year. Companies stopped posting jobs while workers stopped quitting. The labor market didn't cool, it froze.