Series
Single figures from the labor data, taken apart.
57 pieces
Payrolls rose 162,000 in August, more than five times the trailing average. BLS publishes a confidence interval of plus or minus 122,000 on that figure, and twelve recent reports have already slipped below the line it draws.
Uber's memo describes a flattening that has been running nationally since January 2025. Professional and business services now has 95,000 fewer supervisors and 133,000 more people who supervise nobody. On net the sector grew, which is exactly why no layoff count has registered any of it.
Federal employment fell by 252,000 over twelve months. Yet the loss does not appear in any state's unemployment rate, and the District of Columbia's actually fell. Why? Because a person who retires instead of looking for work is not counted as unemployed.
The US unemployment rate fell to 4.1% while the share of Americans with a job also fell. Both are true, and what explains them is not weakness. The entire decline in participation is people over 55.
The quits rate has been between 1.9% and 2.2% for 31 straight months. Hiring is well below its 2019 pace and layoffs are too. A market where nobody is fired and nobody moves is not a strong one.
Payrolls fell 23,000. One sector supplied all of the past year of growth. Quits have not moved in 31 months. The monthly roundup of what the public data said in July, and what it says together.
The economy added 316,000 jobs over the past year. Health care and social assistance added 552,000. Everything else, on net, is 236,000 jobs smaller than it was last July.
Total compensation cost rose 3.3% over the year to June. Wages rose 3.1%, benefits 3.8%. The gap has widened for three straight quarters, and the fastest growing part of the package is the part employees never see.
Sixteen readings, a straight line, and no acceleration. The more interesting number is what businesses say they expect six months from now, because for the first time it is lower than what they just delivered.
Everyone's blaming AI for the freeze. The data says it's cyclical, and the earliest cyclical tell just flipped.
May payrolls doubled the forecast — but temp help, the labor market's leading indicator, kept shrinking. The two signals point opposite ways.
Nominal wages look healthy. Real purchasing power just turned negative for the second month in a row though.
