The Biggest Striker in America Last Year Was a University
No employer in America had more of its workers walk out last year than the University of California. All of American manufacturing, combined, had 6,200.
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There's Something You Need To Know About Job Number Revisions
About six in ten businesses have replied when the jobs report is published each month. More than nine in ten have by the final estimate, two months later. The jobs data did not get less reliable. The first draft of it did.
How Much of a Single Monthly Print Can You Actually Act On?
Payrolls rose 162,000 in August, more than five times the trailing average. BLS publishes a confidence interval of plus or minus 122,000 on that figure, and twelve recent reports have already slipped below the line it draws.
The Layer Uber Just Cut Has Been Shrinking Nationally Since January 2025
Uber's memo describes a flattening that has been running nationally since January 2025. Professional and business services now has 95,000 fewer supervisors and 133,000 more people who supervise nobody. On net the sector grew, which is exactly why no layoff count has registered any of it.
250,000+ Federal Job Cuts Left No Mark on Washington's Unemployment Rate
Federal employment fell by 252,000 over twelve months. Yet the loss does not appear in any state's unemployment rate, and the District of Columbia's actually fell. Why? Because a person who retires instead of looking for work is not counted as unemployed.
The Labor Market Is Shrinking, Not Weakening
The US unemployment rate fell to 4.1% while the share of Americans with a job also fell. Both are true, and what explains them is not weakness. The entire decline in participation is people over 55.
Low Layoffs Are the Other Half of a Frozen Labor Market
The quits rate has been between 1.9% and 2.2% for 31 straight months. Hiring is well below its 2019 pace and layoffs are too. A market where nobody is fired and nobody moves is not a strong one.
July's Numbers Look Steady Only in the Aggregate
Payrolls fell 23,000. One sector supplied all of the past year of growth. Quits have not moved in 31 months. The monthly roundup of what the public data said in July, and what it says together.
Health Care Is the Only Reason Payroll Growth Is Positive
The economy added 316,000 jobs over the past year. Health care and social assistance added 552,000. Everything else, on net, is 236,000 jobs smaller than it was last July.
The Fastest Growing Part of Pay Is the Part Employees Never See
Total compensation cost rose 3.3% over the year to June. Wages rose 3.1%, benefits 3.8%. The gap has widened for three straight quarters, and the fastest growing part of the package is the part employees never see.
The AI Adoption Curve Has Been a Straight Line for Eight Months
Sixteen readings, a straight line, and no acceleration. The more interesting number is what businesses say they expect six months from now, because for the first time it is lower than what they just delivered.
The People-Heavy Penalty
Microsoft cut 4,800 people and got called disciplined. JPMorgan added people, posted the biggest profit in US banking history, and got questioned about its costs. The market is sorting companies on a new factor, and it's getting it half wrong.