The Hiring Signal Problem

The unstructured job interview predicts job performance at roughly the same level as chance. The science has known this for decades. Most companies have never changed.

Union Workers Earn 20% More

Private-sector unionization is at historic lows. The wage premium it commands is not.

Real Wages Rose 1.2%

Nominal pay looks healthy at 3.7%. Strip out inflation and add back the extra hours, and workers are running faster to stay in place.

The Headcount Illusion

Adding headcount past a certain threshold doesn't add capacity, it adds coordination overhead that consumes the capacity you were trying to create. Your team didn't get slower because the work got harder. It got slower because you hired.

Federal Employment Fell 10.9%

The government shed 327,000 positions since October 2024. That workforce doesn't disappear, it floods into private labor markets, and your hiring strategy probably hasn't adjusted for it.

Inflation Cooled to 2.4%

Overall prices are moving closer to the Fed's target, but shelter costs, which directly affect compensation decisions, remain elevated at 3.0% annually.

The Collaboration Penalty

Cross-functional projects don't take longer because the work is harder. They take 3x longer because coordination costs scale exponentially, and we plan as if they're free.