The Onboarding Decay Curve
Why the first 90 days don't determine whether someone stays. They determine how much they contribute if they do.
More from Frameworks
The People-Heavy Penalty
Microsoft cut 4,800 people and got called disciplined. JPMorgan added people, posted the biggest profit in US banking history, and got questioned about its costs. The market is sorting companies on a new factor, and it's getting it half wrong.
250 Years of Adding
For 250 years America grew by adding. The 2026 playbook is to grow profits by subtracting, cutting labor now to harvest margin later, and the market may be paying for a one-time cut as if it compounds.
Strong Enough to Cut
Low unemployment is doing two jobs at once: keeping the Fed hawkish, and giving companies cover to cut white-collar workers for margin. Both lean on the one number that breaks last.